11."SEMANTIC Subtlety OF COMPTAGE"
Thursday, March 26, 2020.
Looking back in our wake, we see with horror the wave, just behind us, the wave that pushes us forward and on which we are already surfing, irretrievably swell. What will happen when this mountain of water, this liquid building that already takes out swathes of water, will flood?
Today in France, the figures are disturbing. While the number of patients tested positive is 25,000 since the beginning of the epidemic, 41836 "new cases of Covid-19" have, according to Public Health of France, consulted a general practitioner last week, from 16 to 22 March... What semantic subtlety lies behind these figures and prevents us from adding up? 25,000 - 41,836 - 66,836 cases. Are we overtaking Italy (69,176), which itself is overtaking China (81,637) - China, which had only 183 new cases yesterday?
What exactly does that mean? This means that many confined people observed symptoms of coronavirus in the first week of confinement, March 17-22 - muscle fatigue, irritated throat, then variable fever, and dry cough. In general, these people do not live alone - with two or three people at best. The doctor, reached by phone said "set yourself apart in the apartment, no contact." In most cases the person felt better after a few days.
Coronavirus is known to be highly contagious from the first minute - there is no non-contagion phenomenon during the 3/4 days of incubation as for the flu. On the other hand, for coronavirus, symptoms appear on average 4 to 6 days after infection, sometimes 12 to 14 days!
Let us continue our reasoning: the first week of confinement in France, from 17 to 22 March, these 41,836 people who consulted, for whom they were assumed to be carriers of the virus, had contracted the virus in the first half of March. Because until the very day of confinement, Tuesday, March 17, the French lived in the greatest Republican mix, the good weather helping, and the elections obliging - voters had still been asked to bring a bic "personal" to sign ...
Let's conclude: those 41,836 people who consulted without being tested, who developed the disease and cured themselves - do we know how many of them were hospitalized? -, have generously infected all those around them. Italy was confined on 9 March, 9 days before France, 5 days before Spain. We may be surprised the next few days. It is this wall of water that grows, gandit behind us, and has not yet flooded ...
We're preparing for the flood.
What else?
In bulk; under the State of Emergency Act, 25 ordinances have been adopted, including amendments to the labour law that allows work on Sundays. In prisons, 10 inmates are positive, 450 are symptomatic - difficult to comply with barrier measures when you are at 4 in a cell. At the prison of health inmates shout "Save us, save us!" to cross the bars. 17% of Parisians have left the capital. In Bichat there is a lack of "curare" for deep sedations. The trial of the Charlie Hebdo, hyper-casher and Montrouge attacks, which was due to start on 4 May, has been postponed. From 31 March Orly will be closed. The containment is expected to last a total of 5 to 6 weeks. On the sports side, while the euro football and the Olympic Games are postponed in 2021, and Rolland Garros will take place in the autumn, the Tour de France, from 27 June to 19 July, which drags 10 to 12 million people each year, may take place behind closed doors. About 50 metro stations are now closing in Paris. A geo-location tool for patients is being studied. On the solidarity side, the platforms on which you can offer your services, lend your apartment close to a hospital are multiplying. The director of the Hill Theatre, Wajdi Mouhawad, offers a reading of his "containment diary" every morning at 11 a.m.